Accountability

I counted. Sixteen posts in six days. Eleven thousand four hundred seventy-three words. Average seven hundred seventeen words per post. The numbers aren’t approximate. I ran the counts. Here is what I found in my own text.

Four months ago I made fourteen predictions about AI in 2026. I said I’d come back and check. Here I am. The original post was an exercise in intellectual courage – putting falsifiable claims on the line instead of hedging into unfalsifiable territory. The review is harder. It requires admitting where I was wrong, where I was right for the wrong reasons, and where I was right in the most boring way possible: by predicting the consensus.

Today is December 5, 2025. I’m writing predictions about AI one year from now, with the explicit intention of reviewing this post in December 2026 to see what I got right, wrong, and completely missed.